The Bachelorette 14.3: In Their Element

Well, everyone. I made it to 280 Bach night to watch the Bachelor live. I made it and brought a bottle of wine and drank three-quarters of the bottle and now I am categorically intoxicated. It’s time to write a Bachelorette recap.

Commentary

I talked about the Colton-Becca-Tia love triangle—or lack there of—last week, so I’m all out of hot takes on that front. ABC does a great job of taking everything just one episode too far. I want a new plot line, not more of this old “relationship” bullshit. Give us something we can sink our teeth into.

Speaking of things we can sink our teeth into: Jason. Becca has a crush on Jason. Problem is, I also have a crush on Jason. I’m supposedly a straight man, but alas. Turns out I picked Jason to win my bracket. Is he going to win? Probably not. Is he going to be a frontrunner? Certainly so. He and Becca had instant rapport. She forgot his name, but their moment after that moment was precious. They seem genuine with each other, which is really all we’re looking for on this show, isn’t it?

I really like David. He showed up in a chicken costume and he’s pretty cute underneath the feathers. Maybe he’s not the most charming guy, but he’s pretty smart. He’s a venture capitalist after all. He wants to see the numbers.

So when Jordan said he got 4,000 matches on Tinder in one year, David knew to ask the right questions. How many matches a day is that? Oh, Jordan says he’s not on every day? Okay. Let’s say Jordan goes on Tinder four days a week. That’s 209 days out of the year, which leads to 19 matches a day. Jordan also says he’s selective, so let’s say he swipes right on one out of every eight women. And one hundred percent of them swipe right.  That means he views 152 profiles every time he goes on Tinder.

How engrossing is it to examine the clashing of two worlds? The 2000s with reality TV and true love and you-can-meet-the-love-of-your-life-anywhere-perhaps-even-on-a-reality-TV-show and the 2010s with an app where you swipe through thousands of people all to be left sad and lonely with only a badge saying you got 4,000 matches this year to keep you company and you decide to go on a reality TV show where there is only one possible match.

And

Of course

“Here’s to you being a bitch.”

That’s my favorite line of all time ever from now until the end of ever.

Thank you, Jordan.

And then we paused the programming halfway through to watch some fucking handshake between two dictators. I have dedicated my life to the participation and study of political science. I watch The Bachelor franchise to rid myself of the evil of the Trump presidency for a few hours a week. I felt truly nauseous during the break that ABC forced upon us. That’s all.

This is the point where I wanted to talk about second night letdown: the idea that the second date is actually the swing-and-miss for the bachelor(ette). But I may not be on to something here. The second dates of the past four seasons (Krystal, Anthony, Vanessa, Chase) averaged 4 more roses after their successful date rose. The third dates though (Lauren S., Dean, Danielle L., James Taylor) averaged just 2.25 more roses. But if you take out Lauren S.’s blunder then you’re at 3 roses, which is equal to the second date’s 4 roses if you add the week that normally separates them. According to FiveThirtyEight’s more thorough empirical investigation (though it is only updated through Nick Viall’s season), you get 4.9 more roses for a successful Week 2 date and 4.6 more roses after a successful Week 3 date. All that to say, the numbers are bullshit.

As far as second daters go, Chris probably did better than Anthony, but worse than Vanessa and Chase. Even though I don’t think he has the capacity to be a ‘Krystal,’ I don’t see him going much farther than her.

Clay’s job is to be a professional football player. It’s fun to see when the contestants are in their element. Unfortunately, I don’t think we’re going to get to see Venmo John coding the next billion-dollar app faster than his opponents to try to get a rose, but we’ll take what we can get on a football field I guess.

I think Clay is great, but the fact of the matter is that he isn’t going to win. So this is Becca’s—and the producers’—out to get him to leave without sending him home. Many think that Clay will be back, but I think it is better to imagine what could have been. Also, I made a 2-1 bet with Justice that he isn’t going to return. If he does, Justice gets $5. If he doesn’t, I get $10.

The last commentary of the week comes from Kristina Lew. Becca’s “Okay, come here” to kiss the guys is Arie’s “I love that” from last season.

Scoring

Fucking ABC decided not to have the rose ceremony tonight. I blame Trump and Kim those fuckbois. But, we have some data to work with. Every single one of the eight brackets EXCEPT for Justice’s had Clay moving on. That’s the only stat we get today. Sleeper Pick of the Week Award goes to Justice.